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PARIS (Reuters) – While French President Nicholas Sarkozy paints Socialist challenger Francois Hollande as a threat to the stable euro and France‘s fiscal discipline, such as it is, economic reality will set a similar course for whomever wins the presidency.

The political rhetoric has aimed to magnify the gap between their economic programs, but it broadly boils down to a timing difference; conservative Sarkozy has committed to balancing the budget in 2016, while Hollande, who leads polls by as much as 10 percentage points for the May 6 runoff, has set a 2017 deadline.

Whoever wins will have to convince the markets that Paris, despite its weak growth and poor finances, has more in common with the soundest borrowers in northern Europe than the debt-laden countries on the euro zone periphery.

“On financial markets, there is a lingering doubt,” said Oddo Securities economist Bruno Cavalier. “The first aim is not to send the wrong signals, so that investors don’t start asking themselves serious questions about deficit reduction.”

Both candidates have pledged to cut the deficit to an EU limit of 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) next year, and while Hollande’s ability to deliver is untested, having never held a high-profile cabinet post, Sarkozy’s record is not entirely supportive. One of the first things he did on taking office in 2007 was to inform his euro zone partners that he was tearing up Paris’s fiscal targets.

History, indeed, is against them both; France has not balanced its books since 1974.

“Based on the last 40 years, France has a poor track record in terms of fiscal discipline,” said Herve Boulhol, head of the France desk at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, a rich nations’ think-tank.

“It is crucial that French governments continue to build credibility by sticking strictly to the consolidation path.”

Hollande is assuming a license to wiggle. He has said he would relax his deficit targets if economic growth is weak, but the gradient he has to climb will be a little steeper after the first three measures he aims to introduce in a special summer parliamentary session; an increase in a back-to-school handout for parents, a state-backed deposit for young tenants, and lowering the retirement age to 60 for people who started work at 18 are likely to increase spending.

Sarkozy begins with a tougher task, given the shorter timeframe, and his plans rest on optimistic growth forecasts and what even the conservative-leaning Institut Montaigne says are 20-percent overestimates in his savings program.

GROWTH GREMLINS

Both men plan to make the biggest deficit cut in 2013, and are counting on economic growth of 1.7-1.75 percent. Most economists, however, forecast growth will be far weaker – on average less than 0.9 percent – and expect the deficit target to be missed.

Further out, the estimates look richer still; Sarkozy expects growth to accelerate to 2 percent in the ensuing years, while Hollande sees growth rebounding to as much as 2.5 percent annually after 2013.

France’s average annual growth rate has been just 1.6 percent over the last 20 years, and even Sarkozy’s government considers the economy’s potential long-term growth rate to be only 1.7 percent.

“The credibility of the newly elected government will be tested as early as this coming fall, when it presents its budget,” Boulhol said.

Sarkozy’s budget-balancing drive is built on a plan to find a cumulative 125 billion euros ($164 billion) by 2016, with 45.5 billion euros coming from new revenue and 79 billion in spending cuts achieved by reining in expenditure growth to 0.4 percent a year.

Hollande aims to find 100 billion euros by 2017, with half of that coming from new revenues and half from limiting nominal growth in public spending to 1.1 percent per year.

FUNDING COSTS

Any drift from such targets could come at a heavy price, as Spain has found. Its bond yields, and therefore its funding costs, have steadily climbed to their highest levels this year since the government gave itself less demanding deficit targets last month.

The premium investors demand to hold French bonds over low-risk German debt is already on the rise – to the highest levels since early January – as unease over the euro zone’s debt difficulties rises again after a few months’ respite afforded by European Central Bank measures.

“If the clarity, persistence and priority of the (deficit reduction) path is affirmed, there is no reason why France in this regard would be the subject of a loss of market faith,” Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer said last week.

And if not? The state paid 51.5 billion euros ($67.4 billion), or 2.6 percent of GDP, in interest payments last year, despite its borrowing costs being at a record low. Sarkozy’s government estimates the burden of debt servicing will rise in coming years and reach 2.8 percent of GDP in 2016, even with borrowing costs rising only marginally. If they rise substantially, a vicious circle makes the deficit targets harder still.

Despite ideological differences between the candidates – Hollande’s instincts are on show in his pledge for a 75 percent top tax rate, and Sarkozy’s in his aim to cut companies’ social welfare charges – they will have less scope to indulge them than for generations.

“There are budget constraints that will be difficult to escape,” said Cavalier. “We’ve been able to escape them for several decades, but the time’s come that it’s not possible anymore.”

($1 = 0.7644 euros)

(Reporting by Leigh Thomas; Editing by Will Waterman)

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China on Tuesday posted a trade surplus for March, reversing a massive deficit from the previous month, but data showed exports were still weak owing to the economic woes in major overseas markets.

The country recorded a trade surplus of $5.35 billion for the month, as outward shipments rose 8.9 percent to $165.66 billion, Chinese customs said.

But it added that imports rose just 5.3 percent to $160.31 billion, indicating domestic consumption in the country of 1.3 billion people is flagging, amid concerns over a hard landing for the economy.

In February, China posted a huge deficit of $31.48 billion — the largest in more than a decade — as it felt the ripples from the debt crisis in Europe and the stuttering recovery in the United States.

Analysts had predicted a deficit of $3.2 billion for March, according to Dow Jones Newswires.

But while the figure was better than expected Liao Qun, China economist for Citic Bank International, told AFP: “The March surplus figure is relatively small as the deterioration in overseas markets since last year has continued to affect China’s exports.”

Exports to the European Union, China’s largest trading partner, fell 1.8 percent in the first quarter while sales to the United States, its second biggest trading partner, rose 12.8 percent.

In the January-March period, China’s politically sensitive trade surplus was just $670 million, although that is an improvement on the $1.02 billion deficit in the same period last year.

The figures will likely ease pressure on leaders to allow the yuan currency to appreciate more strongly.

Beijing and Washington have been embroiled in a long-running dispute over the value of the unit, which US politicians say is kept artificially low to help Chinese exporters, leading to a huge trade gap between the two.

“The small (first quarter) trade surplus appears to support the view that the (yuan) exchange rate is moving closer to its equilibrium value,” ANZ said in a research note on Tuesday.

Analysts still widely expect China to record a trade surplus for the full year, helped by lower commodity prices and a recovery in exports, but much smaller than 2011.

Citic Bank is forecasting an annual trade surplus of around $100 billion this year.

Last year, the nation’s surplus narrowed to $155.14 billion from $181.51 billion in 2010, according to official figures, and the country’s continuing trade woes are expected to lead to a slowdown in the economy this year.

“China’s overall exports have stabilised, but will only see an obvious rebound in the second half,” said You Hongye, a macro-economy analyst at Essence Securities in Beijing.

“But imports will remain weak on declining domestic demand. China’s economy will likely continue to slow down until it stabilises in the third quarter,” he told AFP.

The weak imports figures will be worrying for the government, which is looking to shift its economy from one hugely dependent on exports to more domestic-oriented growth.

The government last month set a target for 7.5 percent economic growth for 2012, following 9.2 percent last year and 10.4 percent in 2010.

China is due to release first quarter growth data on Friday, as well as other economic indicators for March.

The central bank in February cut the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve for the second time in three months as policymakers moved to increase lending and boost domestic consumption due to the economic slowdown.

But analysts say worries over inflation, which rebounded to a higher-than-expected 3.6 percent in March, could slow government moves to further loosen monetary policy.

Chinese shares were down 1.09 percent in afternoon trade.

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In this Jan. 17, 2012 photo, a sign for Google is displayed behind the Google android robot, at the National Retail Federation, in New York. Google Inc., releases quarterly financial results Thursday, Jan. 19, 2012, after the market close. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)

In this Jan. 17, 2012 photo, a sign for Google is displayed behind the Google android robot, at the National Retail Federation, in New York. Google Inc., releases quarterly financial results Thursday, Jan. 19, 2012, after the market close. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) ? What was supposed to be a celebration of the most prosperous quarter in Google’s 13-year history instead turned into a major letdown.

The disappointment sunk in Thursday after Google’s fourth-quarter earnings report showed the Internet search leader fetched less money per click on its ubiquitous online ads.

That came as an unsettling surprise because investors had assumed a surge in online holiday shopping in the U.S. would enable Google Inc. to charge more for its ads. Instead, the average price decreased by 8 percent from the same time in 2010.

Google executives traced part of the decline to technical changes aimed at delivering more ads that attract people’s interest. Those tweaks apparently paid off as the total clicks on Google’s ads increased 34 percent from the previous year.

Most of the trouble seemed to be rooted in Europe, where government debt woes are hurting the economy, said Benchmark Co. analyst Clayton Moran. “I think everyone underestimated how quickly the European online ad market would suffer.”

The weakening euro also converted into fewer dollars during the quarter, another factor that undercut Google.

It all added up to a dramatic slowdown in Google’s earnings growth that alarmed investors. Net income edged up just 6 percent from the same October-December period in 2010, coming off year-over-year increases of more than 25 percent in each of the previous two quarters.

Google shares plunged $57.67, or 9 percent, to $581.90 in extended trading after the results were announced.

The showing could renew Wall Street concerns about Google’s moneymaking prowess under the direction of co-founder Larry Page, who replaced Eric Schmidt as CEO last April. Page took the job with a reputation for being more willing to invest in long-term projects at the expense of short-term profits. In the latest quarter, Google’s operating expenses rose 34 percent from the previous year, outpacing a 25 percent increase in revenue.

If Google’s stock falls as sharply during Friday’s regular trading as it did in Thursday’s extended trading, the shares will be worth slightly less than they were when Page became CEO.

Even before the deceleration in Google’s fourth-quarter earnings, analysts have been fretting that the company’s proposed $12.5 billion acquisition of cellphone maker Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. will crimp profits. The deal is still awaiting approval from regulators in U.S. and Europe.

Buying Motorola is part of Page’s push to expand Google’s empire beyond the dominant Internet search engine that generates most of the company’s revenue. Much of the money is being poured into Google’s Android software for smartphones, its Chrome web browser, its YouTube video site and a social networking service called Plus that is being quickly built to challenge Facebook.

Page, 38, made it clear he sees no reason to change what he has been doing so far. “I am very happy with our results overall in the quarter,” he told analysts during a Thursday conference call.

More people probably would have shared in his ebullience if not for the curse of great expectations.

With more people than ever before shopping for holiday gifts and bargains on computers and mobile devices, Google was supposed to scale new financial heights in the October-December period.

Analysts had forecast Google would earn $3 billion for the first time during any three-month period since the company’s 1998 inception. Instead, Google made slightly less money than it did a quarter earlier.

The company earned $2.7 billion, or $8.22 per share, in the fourth quarter. That compared to net income of $2.5 billion, or $7.81 per share, at the same time in 2010.

The most recent quarter included an $88 million charge to account for the diminished value of a $500 million investment that Google made in wireless network provider Clearwire Corp. in 2008. Google had previously absorbed a $355 million charge on its Clearwire investment.

If not for costs covering employee stock awards, Google said it would have earned $9.50 per share. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected $10.51 per share.

Revenue totaled $10.6 billion, up from $8.4 billion in the previous year. It’s the first time Google’s quarterly revenue topped $10 billion, but even that figure fell shy of analyst projections.

After subtracting ad commissions, Google’s revenue totaled $8.1 billion. That was about $300 million below the average analyst forecast. Revenue would have been about $240 million higher had exchange rates in Europe remained steady with the third quarter’s rates, according to Patrick Pichette, Google’s chief financial officer.

While investors fixated on Google’s falling ad prices, Page hailed the inroads the company is making beyond the Internet search engine that brings in most of its revenue.

The Plus service that Google introduced seven months ago now has more than 90 million users, Page said. That’s more than double the approximately 40 million users of three months ago. Facebook still has a big lead with more than 800 million users after nearly eight years in existence.

About 80 percent of Plus users visit the service at least once a week, according to Google. The company is trying to increase the frequency by including recommendations about Plus accounts in its search results, a recent change that has raised questions about whether Google is abusing its position as the Internet’s leading gateway to unfairly promote its own services over its rivals.

Page is hoping Plus can be as successful as Google’s Gmail service, which now has 350 million accounts, and the Android software, which is now running on 250 million smartphones and other devices, according to numbers the company released Thursday.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/495d344a0d10421e9baa8ee77029cfbd/Article_2012-01-19-Earns-Google/id-95ce996b7832411082630fa5314652bf

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A new poll shows that 43 percent of respondents think divine intervention plays some role in the success of Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow. But what is he praying about?

The question, it seems, had to be asked:?Does God help Tim Tebow win football games?

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According to a new poll by the website Poll Position, 43 percent of Americans say “yes.”

But how would Tim Tebow himself answer the question?

The perception is that as Tebow is kneeling on the sidelines during a game, he is praying to win. One of Tebow’s pastors has only added to that perception, telling the celebrity gossip website TMZ that a recent Broncos six-game winning stream was “God’s favor.”

Asked if a less-pious quarterback would be winning such games,?Pastor Wayne Hanson of Summit Church in Castle Rock, Colo., said:?”No, of course not.”

To be sure, Tebow would ? and does ? credit God for all he accomplishes on the football field. But the idea that he prays for his team to win doesn’t appear to be quite correct.?

The National Football League mic’d Tebow during the Broncos’ come-from-behind, 13-10 win over the Chicago Bears on Dec. 11, and besides offering indisputable proof that Tebow has no future whatsoever as a singer, the video also caught him making the following prayers.

Before the game, he prayed aloud:?

“Lord put a wall of protection around me and my teammates today,?and we go out there and we can?honor you with everything we do and say.?I love you in Jesus’ name.”

During the fourth quarter, he prayed:?

“Dear Jesus, I need you.?Please come through for me.?No matter what happens, win or lose,?give me the strength to honor you.”

?Two weeks earlier, his choice of scripture when asked by Broncos Head Coach John Fox to address the team again spoke more to a desire to express communal strength and courage than an overt desire to win. He quoted Proverbs 27:17, which states: “Iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another.”

The poll by Poll Position is a window on the polarizing nature of Tebow.?While 43 percent said Tebow’s success is, at least in part, attributable to divine intervention, some 42 percent said it wasn’t ? and the margin of error was 3 percent.

Tebow’s open faith?has turned prayerful sideline genuflection into a national “Tebowing” craze as he has repeatedly led his team to victories that, by the measure of sports, seemed miraculous. In Denver, fans?call Tebow the “Mile High Messiah,” they have jerseys with Tim Tebow’s No. 15 but the name “Jesus” on the back, they hold up signs asking “WWTD” (What Would Tebow Do)??

But his faith has also alienated viewers and players.

Baltimore Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs recent mocked Tebow in an ESPN interview, saying,??Once again, God had to save Tim Tebow and the?Denver Broncos.”

What is interesting from the NFL videos, though, is how positively many players seem to respond to him. At one point, he tells Bears linebacker Lance Briggs, “I’ve looked forward to playing you for a long time, man. I love watching you, brother.”

Briggs responds: “Thank you, baby.”

At another, after being mauled by Bears defensive end Julius Pepper, he says, “Hey, good play, man.”

Peppers gives him an affectionate tap on the shoulder pads.?

It is a glimpse, perhaps, into why the Broncos have rallied around Tebow to turn a dismal season that began 1-4 into an unforgettable playoff run.?

Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/feeds/csm/~3/eflLkyEI8a8/Poll-God-helps-Tim-Tebow-win-football-games.-Does-Tim-Tebow-agree

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(Reuters) ? Hedge fund manager David Einhorn is taking an even harder line against Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR.O), his big short trade, claiming a recent audit committee review of the accounting issues he flagged is nothing more than a “whitewash.”

In an exclusive interview with Reuters, Einhorn said he still doubts sales figures and spending plans at the company, which saw its stock soar to $110 in August on the rapid growth of its individual coffee servings or K-cups. When Einhorn revealed in October that he had been building a short position in shares of the company for weeks, the stock tanked and it effectively turned things around for his $8 billion Greenlight Capital fund this year.

“I think everything we said in the presentation is right now as it was then — and in many cases even more so,” said the 43-year-old manager, who runs one of $2 trillion hedge fund industry’s better-known long/short funds and also is an accomplished poker player.

In the interview with Reuters, Einhorn blasted the company’s audit committee for conducting a “whitewash” review of the concerns he raised in an October 17 presentation entitled, “GAAP-uccino.” That presentation hit Green Mountain like a tidal wave, and has sliced the stock’s value in half to around $46 as of Tuesday trading.

Einhorn’s presentation seemed prescient and awoke traders to potential problems with Green Mountain’s growth story. Green Mountain reported a massive earnings disappointment in November in another blow to investor confidence. The stock, which had been a favorite of many in the hedge fund set — most notably John Thaler’s JAT Capital — now ranks as a popular short for managers.

Green Mountain spokeswoman Suzanne DuLong rejected the suggestion the company has given short-shrift to complaints about its accounting practices.

“The audit committee, with the assistance of counsel and a forensic accounting firm, completed its investigation of accounting practices at the company in December 2010,” she said. “Most recently, as our CEO and president, Larry Blanford reported in the November 2011 earnings call: ‘We are confident there is no misconduct, there is no wrongdoing.’”

In recent years, Greenlight Capital has emerged as one of the more influential hedge fund firms, and Einhorn is one of a handful of savvy traders who can move markets with his “short’ calls. Einhorn made his name by warning about Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc’s (LEHMQ.PK) financial health before the investment bank’s bankruptcy, and from a long-running battle with the management of Allied Capital Corp (AFC.N), an investment company. A high-profile bid Einhorn made this year to buy a significant minority stake in the New York Mets fell apart this summer — something of a personal disappointment to the manager who calls himself a lifelong fan of the professional baseball team.

Einhorn would not say how big of a short position in shares of Green Mountain his Greenlight fund still is. But his bet has been something of a life saver for his fund in a difficult climate for many hedge funds. This summer, Greenlight was posting middling returns. In August, for instance, his fund was down 5 percent for the year. Now the fund is up about 5 percent, significantly better than other hedge funds, many of which were down roughly 4.37 percent through November, according to Hedge Fund Research’s broadest industry index.

Einhorn hasn’t disclosed just how profitable his Green Mountain trade was to his fund. But his talk with Reuters about the trade reveals the manager is clearly sticking to his convictions.

REUTERS: Which of the issues you raised in your presentation do you believe Green Mountain has answered so that you would change them?

EINHORN: “Actually, I think everything we said in the presentation is as right now as it was then — and in many cases even more so. Some of the things we pointed out, like the inexplicable sales of K-Cups in the June quarter, have now been revealed to have been very valid concerns and the rest remain unanswered. And some of them are things will have to sort of play out in the future like the competition.”

REUTERS: Management says that fourth-quarter sales were hurt by wholesale orders, and do not indicate any accounting issues. In other words, you were right, but for the wrong reasons. Were you surprised by the earnings miss?

EINHORN: “The thing about an investment like this is that there are really a lot of ways for us to come out well because the risk-reward for the stock is so poor. And there are so many problems that they don’t all have to hit at the same time in order for us to get a good result. In terms of what actually did cause them to miss the quarter? It was largely a sales miss, which seemed to follow from the unexplained sales spike that we highlighted in the presentation.”

REUTERS: Management stated, “Though disappointing, we take the recent allegations of misconduct seriously. Our Audit Committee has reviewed the allegations and we are confident there is no misconduct. There is no wrongdoing.” What is your response to this?

EINHORN: “Simply saying that you take allegations with misconduct seriously does not mean that you actually take the allegations of misconduct seriously. In other words, their response came only about three weeks after the presentation and there was an enormous amount of material that if somebody was going to take the material comment seriously, they would have to review. It doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense to me — or even be possible — to think that somebody who took our concerns seriously would even be able to review it in three weeks. As a result, it kind of feels like a whitewash to me. The question at this point, since the company wasn’t able to give any substantive answers to the most serious of the questions that were raised — they instead deferred to a general statement from the audit committee — the question now becomes whether the audit committee itself is part of the problem as opposed to being a part of the solution.”

REUTERS: One of your concerns was that Green Mountain couldn’t explain its capital spending. When the company announced earnings, it detailed its capital spending for 2011 and 2012 by category. What did you take away from that?

EINHORN: “I actually think the extra information led further support to our view that the capital spending is unlikely to be going for the purposes that Green Mountain says that they are. In the sense that when you break out the spending, they broke it into various categories.

“For example, they say they are spending $225 million this coming year on portion packs. By our calculation, that would be enough to add approximately 15 billion K-cups of annual capacity. And yet the company only needs to add about 4 billion cups of capacity. So there is a rather large delta there. But the clearest one of all (involving Green Mountain’s capital spending) actually is the manufacturing facilities where they said that they are going to spend $175 million. They said the big pieces of this are at their expansion in Virginia and in Ethics, Vermont. We went into the various property records and the building permits relating to these kinds of expansion and we were only able to total in those properties — and actually including another property in Waterbury, Vermont — we were only able to find about $50-60 million of capital spending on the pieces that they say are the biggest pieces of the $175 million facilities and infrastructure spent.

“All of this adds together to leave us with the view that it is very unlikely that they have an adequate explanation for where approximately $665 million of capital spending can reasonably go to support the growth of this business.”

REUTERS: After Green Mountain announced earnings, there were a raft of insider purchases. Is this a bullish signal for the stock?

EINHORN: “This is something that we see in a number of these types of positions, where when there is an effort by a management team to promote the stock they go and get a large number of insiders to make what we call nominal purchases or to use a term of art to ‘paint the tape.’ But what’s interesting here is that you have a team where they’ve literally sold stock in the hundreds of millions of dollars — and are buying back stock in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.

“In the more clear example of this, Michael Mardy (Director) sold 20,000 shares for $97.48 on August 5, 2011. He purchased 1,000 shares for $43.36 on November 14, 2011. David Moran (Director) sold 10,000 shares for $98.50 on August 5, 2011. He purchased 1,180 shares for $42.17 on November 14, 2011.” (A Green Mountain spokeswoman said the August insider sales were part of a previously arranged share selling program.)

REUTERS: What’s fair value on Green Mountain stock?

EINHORN: “I don’t think there’s any way to know for sure what the fair value is. When I think about this company, I think about the cash flow that it generates. And right now, the company should be in a fantastic position because it still has the monopoly on the ability to make K-cups. And despite that, the company has no cash flow from operations and has substantial capital spending. So it seems to me that a business that doesn’t generate any cash — and this is before the monopoly position on the K-cups disappears next September — if you don’t generate very much cash, it’s hard to understand why there is a large value.”

(Reporting By Jennifer Ablan; editing by Matthew Goldstein and Edward Tobin)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/business/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20111220/bs_nm/us_greenmountain_einhorn

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CHARLOTTE (Reuters) ? The Federal Reserve is unlikely to need to ease monetary policy further given the country’s steady if moderate pace of economic growth, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said on Monday.

Lacker, an inflation hawk who will rotate into a voting seat in the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee next year, said he expects the economy to expand between 2 percent and 2.5 percent next year.

He said this forecast was predicated on further gains in payroll employment, but also built in a significant slowdown in the euro zone.

“I’m hard pressed to see the rationale for further monetary stimulus,” Lacker told reporters after a speech.

Lacker said this year’s spike in U.S. inflation cast doubt on the notion that underused productive capacity provides a sufficient buffer against inflation.

“The doubling of inflation this year, despite unemployment averaging 9 percent, undercuts the hoary notion that ‘slack’ in the labor market can be counted on to keep inflation contained,” Lacker said. “Inflation can accelerate despite elevated levels of unemployment.”

Some Fed officials believe another round of monetary stimulus could help bring down the nation’s 8.6 percent jobless rate further. But Lacker stuck to the view that the bulk of problems holding back the job market are beyond the reach of monetary policy.

U.S. gross domestic product expanded just 2.0 percent in the third quarter, though a restocking of inventories is expected to push the annualized rate briefly over 3 percent during the fourth quarter.

Lacker said he dissented against the Fed’s decision to lower the rate on its foreign exchange swaps with other major central banks because he disagrees with the facility in principle, saying it blurs the line between fiscal and monetary policy.

Europe, which remains in financial disarray as countries grapple with the prospect of a deeper fiscal union, suggests demand for U.S. exports will take a hit. But this should not derail the U.S. recovery, Lacker said.

(Reporting By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

(This story was corrected in paragraph 3 to make clear forecasts predicated on payroll employment gains, not payroll tax cut)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/economy/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20111220/bs_nm/us_feds_lacker

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A currency trader reacts in front of the screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Korea Exchange Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Dec. 19, 2011. (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)

A currency trader reacts in front of the screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Korea Exchange Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Dec. 19, 2011. (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)

A currency trader looks at the monitors at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Korea Exchange Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Dec. 19, 2011. Asian stock markets slid Monday amid news that the mercurial leader of nuclear-armed North Korea has died, raising fears of increased political instability in the region. (AP Photo/ Lee Jin-man)

Currency traders react at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Korea Exchange Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Dec. 19, 2011. Asian stock markets slid Monday amid news that the mercurial leader of nuclear-armed North Korea has died, raising fears of increased political instability in the region. (AP Photo/ Lee Jin-man)

Currency traders watch monitors at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Korea Exchange Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Dec. 19, 2011. Asian stock markets slid Monday amid news that the mercurial leader of nuclear-armed North Korea has died, raising fears of increased political instability in the region. (AP Photo/ Lee Jin-man)

Currency traders talk in front of the screens showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index, left, and foreign exchange rates at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Korea Exchange Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Dec. 19, 2011. Asian stock markets slid Monday amid news that the mercurial leader of nuclear-armed North Korea has died, raising fears of increased political instability in the region. (AP Photo/ Lee Jin-man)

PARIS (AP) ? European markets edged tentatively higher Monday, stabilizing after losses in Asia, as investors weighed the potential consequences of the death of North Korea’s absolute ruler, Kim Jong Il.

Markets’ first reaction was to drop on the news of Kim Jong Il’s death, which analysts warned could cause an uncertain power transition and put the brakes on talks aimed at getting the secretive communist state to give up its nuclear weapons.

Kim Jong Un, the supreme leader’s untested third son and heir-apparent, is expected to want to consolidate his power and dispel any notions of weakness.

Even before Kim’s death, the United States and others have said they viewed the power transition as a dangerous time ? when the ascendant Kim Jong Un could seek to demonstrate his leadership credentials through martial and provocative actions, such as a military attack on South Korea or a nuclear test.

“The most likely scenario for regime collapse has been the sudden death of Kim (Jong Il). We are now in that scenario,” said Victor Cha, a former U.S. National Security Council director for Asian affairs.

But after Asian indexes closed lower, European stocks recovered their poise. Germany’s DAX rose 0.7 percent to 5,741 and Paris’ CAC 40 index rose 0.2 percent to 2,979. Britain’s FTSE gained 0.3 percent to 5,405.40.

Wall Street was set to open higher, with Dow futures up 0.5 percent at 11,831 and the broader S&P 500 futures up 0.6 percent at 1,218.20.

Overnight South Korea’s Kospi index dived nearly 5 percent but later recouped some losses to close 3.4 percent lower at 1,776.93. The Korean won also fell, losing 1.6 percent against the U.S. dollar, a traditional haven in times of uncertainty. The Japanese yen and other regional currencies also weakened against the dollar.

The euro was flat around $1.3030.

Kim’s death overshadowed what already was a gloomy start to the week after Fitch warned after the market close on Friday that it may downgrade the credit ratings of heavyweights Italy and Spain, as well as Belgium, Cyprus, Ireland and Slovenia.

EU finance ministers will later Monday discuss how much money their countries will lend to the International Monetary Fund in a conference call.

The ministers will seek to decide how to split up the euro200 billion ($261 billion) EU leaders promised to send to the IMF at a summit 10 days ago.

The money is meant to boost the eurozone’s firewall against the escalating debt crisis.

There were some doubts whether the EU would reach the euro200 billion after several non-eurozone countries balked at having to support the currency union.

The ministers will also discuss in their conference call a new treaty to tighten fiscal discipline, a spokesman for the Polish delegation to the European said.

Over the coming days, investors will remain alert to developments in North Korea’s power transition.

Kim Jong Il’s death, announced Monday by North Korean state television, raises the specter of more instability on the divided Korean peninsula.

Those worries are most acute in South Korea and Japan, which have often been the targets of North Korea’s mercurial military and diplomatic actions.

“We’re seeing deeper negative sentiment in some markets,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, strategist at Credit Agricole CIB, in Hong Kong. “Basically this is because risk aversion on the geopolitical front has increased given that there’s a transition of power in a relatively unstable country. So we’re seeing an impact on equities, currencies.”

South Korea’s military and police went on alert and President Lee Myung-bak, convened a national security council meeting. Japanese leaders said they were watching markets closely and in contact with the U.S., Kyodo News Agency reported.

Kim was ailing after suffering what is thought to have been a stroke in 2008 and died at age 69 on Saturday.

North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency identified his third son, the twenty-something Kim Jong Un, as the “great successor” to the man known officially as the “Dear Leader.”

But even with the younger Kim designated as his father’s successor, and already filling high-ranking posts, some experts fear a behind-the-scenes power struggle or nuclear instability.

Fitch Ratings said it did not view Kim’s death “as a trigger for negative action on South Korea’s sovereign ratings in itself.”

“For now, it’s much too early to say risks have materially increased, but clearly we will keep the situation under close review,” said Andrew Colquhoun, head of Fitch’s Asia-Pacific sovereigns.

Markets in Taiwan, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia also sank on Monday.

Still, barring unexpected developments in Pyongyang the impact of Kim’s death on markets is likely to be passing, analysts said.

“In the short term there will be some psychological uncertainty but I think things will go back to the fundamentals,” said Steven Leung, director of institutional sales at UOB-Kay Hian Ltd. in Hong Kong.

Benchmark oil for January delivery was up 51 cents at $94.04 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

___

Elaine Kurtenbach in Shanghai and Kelvin Chan in Hong Kong contributed.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/f70471f764144b2fab526d39972d37b3/Article_2011-12-19-World-Markets/id-df5b828f5e5942ebb17709331d1a2814

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FILE – In this March 21, 2011 file photo, Slim Jims, a ConAgra product, are offered for sale at Cubby’s Old Market Grocery Store, a few city blocks from ConAgra’s world headquarters, in Omaha, Neb. Food maker ConAgra Foods said Tuesday, Dec. 20, 2011, its net income fell nearly 15 percent as high food costs continue to pressure results. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik, File)

FILE – In this March 21, 2011 file photo, Slim Jims, a ConAgra product, are offered for sale at Cubby’s Old Market Grocery Store, a few city blocks from ConAgra’s world headquarters, in Omaha, Neb. Food maker ConAgra Foods said Tuesday, Dec. 20, 2011, its net income fell nearly 15 percent as high food costs continue to pressure results. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik, File)

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) ? Food maker ConAgra Foods said Tuesday that fiscal second-quarter net income fell nearly 15 percent as high food costs continued to pressure results.

ConAgra Foods Inc., like many food companies, is dealing with higher costs for ingredients, packaging and fuel and has raised its prices to offset those increases.

“The marketplace environment remains difficult due to continuing inflationary pressures and the impact of the current economy on consumers, so we are cautious about business conditions,” said CEO Gary Rodkin.

Still, results for the Omaha, Neb.-based company were better than analysts expected and ConAgra reaffirmed its fiscal 2012 guidance.

The maker of Slim Jim, Chef Boyardee and other packaged foods says net income fell to $171.8 million, or 41 cents per share. That compares with $200.9 million, or 46 cents per share a year ago. Excluding one-time items related to derivatives and restructuring, net income was 47 cents per share. That’s ahead of the 43 cents per share analysts expected, according to a poll by FactSet.

Revenue during the 13 weeks ended Nov. 27 rose 8 percent to $3.4 billion from $3.15 billion last year. Analysts expected $3.34 billion.

Sales of branded consumer foods, the company’s largest division that makes up 63 percent of sales, rose 4 percent to $2.18 billion.

Top sellers were Banquet, Chef Boyardee, Hunt’s, Marie Callender’s, Orville Redenbacher’s and others.

Sales of commercial foods, which make up 37 percent of sales, rose 16 percent to $1.23 billion, as the company raised prices because of higher wheat and potato costs.

Results from its Lamb Weston potato division improved due to cost cutting and higher volume.

ConAgra’s outlook sees adjusted fiscal 2012 earnings per share growth in the low- to mid-single digit percentage range, with most growth concentrated in the fourth quarter, helped by higher prices and acquisitions.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/apdefault/f70471f764144b2fab526d39972d37b3/Article_2011-12-20-Earns-ConAgra/id-47153b3096da423b9b662c51385e919f

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NEW YORK ? U.S. stocks are slipping early Wednesday as worries over Europe hang over financial markets. Energy companies fell hard as oil dropped 3 percent.

Italy’s borrowing rates ratcheted higher and the euro slid below $1.30 for the first time since January, two signs that the debt crisis continues to pressure Europe’s governments.

Italy had to pay higher borrowing rates in its last bond auction of the year Wednesday. The euro zone’s third-largest economy paid 6.47 percent interest to borrow euro3 billion ($3.95 billion) for five years, up from 6.30 percent just a month ago.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 61 points, or 0.5 percent to 11,893 as of 10 a.m. Eastern time. Caterpillar Inc. fell 3.4 percent, the most of the 30 stocks in the Dow. The Dow closed down both Monday and Tuesday.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 8, or 0.7 percent, to 1,217. The Nasdaq fell 24, or 0.9 percent to 2,554.

In Europe, Germany’s DAX dropped 1.3 percent; France’s main stock index fell 1.9 percent.

The drop in crude prices pulled down Cabot Oil & Gas Corp, Alpha Natural Resources Inc. and Apache Corp. All three were down more than 3 percent in early trading.

First Solar Inc. plunged 19 percent, the biggest drop in the S&P 500, after the country’s largest solar company slashed its earnings estimate for the year. The solar industry has been hit hard by slower economic growth around the world and as government funding for alternative energy projects has dried up.

Avon jumped 8.7 percent, the largest gain in the S&P 500. The company announced late Tuesday that its CEO, Andrea Jung, will step down. The cosmetics company has been struggling with erratic financial results and is under scrutiny by regulators.

The Dow and S&P are down more than 2 percent for the week. The Nasdaq is down 3 percent.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/energy/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111214/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/us_wall_street

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BANGKOK (AP) ? Asian stock markets rose Monday as investors cheered a new European fiscal pact aimed at fixing the region’s debt crisis and preventing a collapse of the euro currency.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index jumped 1.5 percent to 8,665.76. South Korea’s Kospi added 1.2 percent to 1,896.35 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.6 percent to 18,874.22.

Under the deal reached Friday, all 17 countries that use the euro agreed to allow a central European authority to oversee their future budgets. They also agreed to automatic penalties if they spend too much.

In addition to tighter controls on spending, Europe’s new “fiscal compact” calls for the launch of a permanent bailout fund for euro nations in 2012, a year ahead of schedule. The deal also will send 200 billion euros ($267 billion) to the International Monetary Fund, which controls another emergency fund for countries in crisis.

But the deal won’t help cut debt today, which in Italy, Greece and Spain has driven government borrowing costs close to levels considered unsustainable. That loose end brought into focus the future monetary policy of the European Central Bank, and whether it would be willing to buy enough national bonds from troubled countries to keep interest rates down.

Analysts at Credit Agricole CIB said “the lack of ECB action in terms of stepping up to the plate as lender of the last resort” still weighed on investment sentiment.

There were also doubts about the willingness of each individual country to ratify the agreement.

Benchmark oil for January delivery was down 7 cents to $99.34 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose $1.07 to finish at $99.41 per barrel on the Nymex on Friday.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/f70471f764144b2fab526d39972d37b3/Article_2011-12-11-World-Markets/id-af1be85f6cf94893a111447935c56e14

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